Bank of Canada Holds Rates - Here Is What It Actually Means
On June 10th, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for the 5th consecutive time, leaving the Prime rate unchanged at 4.45%.
The decision was not a surprise - but what Governor Tiff Macklem said about what comes next is worth paying attention to.
The Bank is being pulled in two directions at once.
If the U.S. imposes major new tariffs on Canada, economic growth takes a hit and rate cuts become more likely. But if Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated and that pressure spreads through the broader economy, the Bank may need to raise rates instead. Inflation currently sits at 2.8% - up, but not yet broadly concerning.
In other words, the Bank is holding steady precisely because the risks are pointing in opposite directions. The next announcement is July 15th, and the economic data between now and then will drive the decision.
If you are like me, and you like to look at numbers, here is a table summarizing the Prime Rate changes in Canada from 2010 to today:
| Effective Date | Prime Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
June 11, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
April 29, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
March 18, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Jan 28, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Dec 10, 2025 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Oct 29, 2025 | 4.45% | -0.25% |
Sept 17, 2025 | 4.70% | -0.25% |
July 30, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
June 04, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
April 16th, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
| March 12th, 2025 | 4.95% | -0.25% |
| Jan 29th, 2025 | 5.25% | -0.25% |
| Dec 11th, 2025 | 5.45% | -0.50% |
| October 23, 2024 | 5.95% | -0.50% |
| Sept 4, 2024 | 6.45% | -0.25% |
| July 24, 2024 | 6.70% | -0.25% |
| June 5, 2024 | 6.95% | -0.25% |
| July 12, 2023 | 7.20% | +0.25% |
| June 8, 2023 | 6.95% | +0.25% |
| January 25, 2023 | 6.70% | +0.25% |
December 8, 2022 | 6.45% | +0.50% |
| October 27, 2022 | 5.95% | +0.50% |
| September 8, 2022 | 5.45% | +0.75% |
| July 14, 2022 | 4.70% | +1.00% |
June 2, 2022 | 3.70% | +0.50% |
April 14, 2022 | 3.20% | +0.50% |
| March 3, 2022 | 2.70% | +0.50% |
| March 30, 2020 | 2.45% | -0.50% |
| March 17, 2020 | 2.95% | -0.50% |
| March 5, 2020 | 3.45% | -0.50% |
October 25, 2018 | 3.95% | +0.25% |
| July 12, 2018 | 3.70% | +0.25% |
| January 18, 2018 | 3.45% | +0.25% |
| September 7, 2017 | 3.20% | +0.25% |
| July 13, 2017 | 2.95% | +0.25% |
| July 16, 2015 | 2.70% | -0.15% |
| January 28, 2015 | 2.85% | -0.15% |
| September 9, 2010 | 3.00% | +0.25% |
| July 21, 2010 | 2.75% | +0.25% |
| June 2, 2010 | 2.50% | +0.25% |
What this means for you as a borrower?
Variable rates remain unchanged.
Fixed rates are still influenced by bond yields
Future rate cuts are possible, but not guaranteed
This isn’t a “rates are dropping fast” environment.
It’s a strategy matters more than timing environment.
For anyone with a variable rate mortgage or a renewal coming up in the next 12 months, this is a good time to have a strategy conversation - before the direction becomes clearer and your options narrow.
Need help understanding how this affects your mortgage?
Let’s connect for a quick chat — I’ll walk you through what this decision means for your specific situation.
Let’s chat!
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